The feeling may be exaggerated, as after all we are not on the verge of a world war (I hope), or a bourgeois revolution that brings new ideas (any new idea floating around?), or even the seizure of power by the proletariat and sacrifice in the public square of Uncle Scrooge and his golden looters (for those who have not caught the subtle metaphor = Goldman Sachs).
Notwithstanding that, my feeling remains that after the storm, our ship will no longer cruise the same waters. This is a transcendent moment, at least for the West, at least for the EU ... and also to Spain. Here's why.
- crisis is a global , affects a greater or lesser extent all countries, including (and especially) to developed countries.
- has again put on the table issues related to competitiveness of countries in world trade . This issue, touted by consultants and gurus from the 80 and 90 had not supported too well the empirical test. At present, however, is back on the table the question of whether Western countries can maintain their position in world trade with China, India, Brazil and others through the "business as usual" or need implement far-reaching reforms.
- has uncovered the weaknesses and bad practices of financial systems , rising voices calling for greater regulation and control that reduce moral hazard (too big to fail institutions, public megarescates unrequited). However, politicians seem unable or unwilling to tackle both problems, the weaknesses of the system as the bad practices of some officers, who have demonstrated to be saved themselves.
- has put a brutal pressure on the EU and the very concept of economic and monetary union , agreeing with those who warned of the risks and exhilarating to those who always wanted to see it fail. The EU is a crucial dilemma: hence its decline may result from permanent or re-founded on solid pillars.
- In EU countries, particularly, the crisis has dramatically within the sustainability of their welfare states , on doubts that already existed in pre-crisis times.
- joins a scenario of imminent energy crisis (no stranger to the economic crisis itself) with various global fronts:
- Unit mass of oil whose production is possibly declining and therefore end of cheap oil, with the consequent need for replacement.
- global discussion on climate change without significant progress years: a mass of evidence of the pressure that our economic model is placing on ecosystems and climate, is joined by a great uncertainty about the impact this may have about our welfare and, particularly, that of future generations.
- This creates an ethical debate about whether to act now, and the cost of such action. Especially if the capital to invest is now retired from other initiatives that are perceived as most pressing: poverty, disease, access drinking water ...
- political Crisis: difficulty of the traditional parties and ideologies to renew the discourse and engage the citizens to democratic participation and responsible (with the limitations imposed by the system, we are more naive than necessary ...) on the problems of society. With the exception hopeful Obama in the U.S., could include both a "crisis of the left" as a "crisis of the right", namely
- The left has long been unable to articulate a speech to the new times (with or without a crisis.) Once made by the Western democracies, many of the principles defended by the left, some of them embedded in welfare states of many countries, the left is torn between its old ghosts (past Marxist ideology naively stale anti-liberal, pro-environmentalist, etc. ) and the new populist whims (Morales, Chavez ... when Ahmadinejad among the particularly stupid). See for example this article (with their disappointing last paragraphs), or seeing flashes of brilliance by here for here and some of the speeches that are read here.
- Right, especially the Party Republican U.S. and in other countries see it as their guide and reflection, shows an alarming radical anti-state, anti-scientific and intolerant ( see here). His version is brilliantly portrayed Iberian here.
- In the case of Spain, has revealed that the "English miracle" was not much, and that without deep reforms to guide our production to growth , our living standards and those of our children go to fall well below that we were enjoying. Even with these reforms, it is inevitable a difficult period of adjustment and reorganization will not be easy manage to politicians and people in general.
points that would be desirable (and I know what I seem pathetically naive to write):
- global financial reform, even partial or progressive, but essential for not returning to the same practices that precipitated the crisis.
- EU Refoundation on bases robust and flexible to include monetary as well as economic governance, greater agility in times of crisis, increased democratization of the European institutions and education to the city ...
- height view of politicians. Consider the voter as someone smart, rely on the advice of those who know, explain the why of things, the need for reforms and the risks involved if not done. Although this seems an unaffordable condition for a politician, I fear it will be the only way to avoid or at least reduce, protests and social unrest that may generate tremendous consequence of adjustment that lies ahead (perhaps inevitable in any case), and small-scale example of which we are seeing in the Greek crisis. Reassessing
- actions Climate Change, to be compatible with the improvement in living standards of the neediest countries. Turning crisis into an opportunity energy.
- need for a new impulse conservative movement and right of a modern, rational, scientific and tolerant ... such as this .
- urge to reestablish left so that, without sacrificing universal values \u200b\u200bof redistribution, justicia social, igualdad de oportunidades de origen, solidaridad ante el desfavorecido por los caprichos de la naturaleza, por la enfermedad o la exclusión social, etc., adopte una visión pragmática de la política, mucho más basada en el empirismo y la evaluación de políticas, dispuesta a defender los estados del bienestar basándose en políticas capaces de sostenerlos (no en “derechos adquiridos e inalienables”), asumiendo la defensa de la sostenibilidad en sentido amplio y el rechazo indiscutible de los totalitarismos y populismos mal llamados “de izquierdas”. Vamos, una izquierda como ésta .
0 comments:
Post a Comment