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Three scientific studies: the good, the bad and the ugly moments of change

with my personal hobby to reflect on the good or bad application of scientific method, and especially what we offer the media in this regard, I am today with three striking news in the country that are worth comment, for download a bit of tension in recent days Zapatero, the evil speculators and the (deserved) victory for Barca in the league have made the environment:

• " One study concluded that the Power Balance Bracelet does not improve the balance "
• " Children who eat more bread are thinner "
• " Fetuses prefer Mozart dislike jazz or rock "

The first cites a study by the Polytechnic University of Madrid serve to check whether the bracelet of the fa-fools and fools to dry, improved or not improved balance. say, in defense the Corps of Engineers honored that form in this holy house (including this writer), the study was carried out such a Faculty of Physical Education and Sport, unknown to me so far, but apparently quite free time, as its name suggests ...
The second news
cites a study by a professor of nutrition at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid.

The third does not refer to a specific study, but an interview with Thomas Verny, "psychiatrist babies and pregnancies" (sic), which released this pearl and some other similar, based on "their experiences."

I'm going to explain why, despite the somewhat frivolous appearance of the three news (and by extension of studies to which they refer), the first it seems good, the second and third BAD FEA. ; Of course, this is my personal opinion based on the data presented in the development of the story, do not know in detail the specific studies, so it could screw up at some point (I say this about the possible complaints more than anything ...)

• GOOD : It turns out that the study on the bracelet of yore seems to fulfill the steps necessary to draw any conclusions relevant to this type of study: the system of "double blind (neither the volunteers nor the experimenters know which hologram bracelet and what has not, to not influence the results), balance tests are standardized instruments are used to objectify what is meant by "balance" is a statistical study end ... and concludes that "no evidence of effect on the balance." No more. Does not question whether the wristband erection increases or enhances self-esteem, or makes you feel more beautiful, and so on. That, of course, would require a similar ad-hoc the previous.
• THE UGLY: The second study concludes that "children who eat more bread are less overweight and obesity and improve blood parameters and other nutrients." In the detail of the news found that a sample of children, and relates the initial state with its intake of bread. Then is a theoretical hypothesis : if we increase the amount of bread in the diet, improved physical parameters. Then he raises a lot of bread to the diet of a portion of the sample, re-examine their physical parameters to check the validity the hypothesis. We find that the parameters have improved, and concludes that the reason is the bread. Question for readers: Am I the only one who finds some flaws in this methodology? I insist that I have no details of the study, but only what is clear from the news, we should conclude that it does not adequately fulfill the scientific method: it makes a statement and is preparing an experiment to see if that statement is true .. . but does not seem to take into account the other possibilities, such as the bread is not the only factor, the correlation may be spurious ... Have you checked if the statement is also true if you increase the intake say, wild strawberries in the diet? And if so, what effect relevant, bread or strawberries? Is says something about the amount of bread from which we can expect an improvement of the parameters? You have checked the sample by other factors that could introduce strong biases, such as heredity, etc. In short, if this study is not directly in the category of BAD, is because we read (unsurprisingly) that is sponsored by the English bread industry, which places it directly in the OEM section.
• THE BAD: the latter, which should be the ugly, judging by the photo of the deceased, really know the details their scientific career. Perhaps Therapist can offer some light. But if we are to judge only by what we said in the interview, I will classify statements BAD because throwing type, based on personal experiences or directly on "evidence", scratched directly into shamanism.

In conclusion, we are left with the first study. Some might say that to know that the power-balance bracelets did not work so careful study needed. I know!: It is well known that the only effect wristbands mood (a part of the population), and improve sexual function (from both parts of the population) are the diamond bracelet. And this is pure empiricism: Taste and see. ;)

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five times richer Than blacks in the U.S.? History

Here some say. not convince me. In terms absoultos, may be somewhat mediocre, another symptom of Western decadence. But I would like a historical series, and that would bring us back some optimism, no?

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pessimism. Bye and thanks

say that the Web page is a millionaire Clarin River which is the government. The difference, in this case is that the former if they are right. Just a few hours the illusion lasted, too bad.

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Why not use Daniel Alberto in the debt market? (II)

rate relevant in explaining the demand for goods by the River (investment or money to bring players) is the real interest rate. The real interest rate, "says Llach" indicates how many goods will be sacrificed tomorrow to get a certain amount of goods today. Who borrows to consume or invest is concerned about how many goods will have to repay the loan in the sad hour of repayment. Then:

TDI EXPECTED BY RIVER = REAL RISK FREE RATE + RISK + DEPRECIATION COUNTRY EXPECTED IN THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE.

In essence, notice what captures the third element is the percentage difference that comes from making VARIATION IN THE NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTED less expected inflation. In a situation like this should be counted in the hope of these variables during the life of the loan period, but the important thing is that with high probability the third component will be negative: inflation is gaining at the rate of devaluation. Why? Understand a little what is happening. Assume for simplicity

that the National Bank offers a dollar loan to River so we removed the nominal depreciation expected in the rate component. Say River will have to repay U $ D 100 in interest and capital.

If the real exchange rate will be very low (because inflation is gaining against the dollar) at the end of the loan, Argentine goods will be very expensive in dollars and River will be forced to sell few assets measured in dollars ("players Falopa?) to honor its debt. Looking back: It took a loan worth 100 dollars, the exchange rate is fixed, but the prices of Argentina's economy as a whole rose (say 25%). Al end of the period, as the economy has become more expensive in dollars, will need fewer goods in pesos to pay its entire debt. The real value of debt with an unchanged nominal exchange rate (say one U.S. dollar = one peso) is lower by 25% inflation: 100/125 = 0.8

If instead the opposite happens (a devaluation of 30 % which exceeds the inflation rate of 25%) the real exchange rate increases. Again, at the end of the loan, Argentinos are very cheap goods measured in dollars. Therefore, in this situation will be forced to pay for many goods to fulfill the amount of dollars (or pesos with the corresponding adjustment) that requires the National Bank: 130/125 = 1.04

It is worth noting that we are leaving out all cases where devaluation exceeds the expected devaluation. That is, we are assuming that if the loan is realized in dollars, computed the expected depreciation in the rate charged by the bank is equal to the rate of devaluation actually occurs after the end of the period.

As the situation is most likely the former, we see that the expected real interest rate today would say that is negative (devalueta of 6, inflation of 25), and hence the demand for loans increases in all categories ("this will gives some idea of \u200b\u200bthe new shock of consumption durable goods?). If, indeed, ex post, it happens as expected, Daniel Alberto policy will have been correct (at least financially). Now, you have to buy players.

Edu Science Reflector

not know about you, but we are experiencing vertigo for months, imbued with an unprecedented global crisis since the Crash of 29 and the maelstrom of events that accompany them, to me not me removes the feeling of being in an important historical moment, the kind of which they say, in a display of empiricism enviable to be a "before" and "after."

The feeling may be exaggerated, as after all we are not on the verge of a world war (I hope), or a bourgeois revolution that brings new ideas (any new idea floating around?), or even the seizure of power by the proletariat and sacrifice in the public square of Uncle Scrooge and his golden looters (for those who have not caught the subtle metaphor = Goldman Sachs).

Notwithstanding that, my feeling remains that after the storm, our ship will no longer cruise the same waters. This is a transcendent moment, at least for the West, at least for the EU ... and also to Spain. Here's why.

In my opinion converge several vital issues in this crisis. Without being exhaustive, I will mention those come to mind:

• crisis is a global , affects a greater or lesser extent all countries, including (and especially) to developed countries.
• has again put on the table issues related to competitiveness of countries in world trade . This issue, touted by consultants and gurus from the 80 and 90 had not supported too well the empirical test. At present, however, is back on the table the question of whether Western countries can maintain their position in world trade with China, India, Brazil and others through the "business as usual" or need implement far-reaching reforms.
• has uncovered the weaknesses and bad practices of financial systems , rising voices calling for greater regulation and control that reduce moral hazard (too big to fail institutions, public megarescates unrequited). However, politicians seem unable or unwilling to tackle both problems, the weaknesses of the system as the bad practices of some officers, who have demonstrated to be saved themselves.
• has put a brutal pressure on the EU and the very concept of economic and monetary union , agreeing with those who warned of the risks and exhilarating to those who always wanted to see it fail. The EU is a crucial dilemma: hence its decline may result from permanent or re-founded on solid pillars.
• In EU countries, particularly, the crisis has dramatically within the sustainability of their welfare states , on doubts that already existed in pre-crisis times.
• joins a scenario of imminent energy crisis (no stranger to the economic crisis itself) with various global fronts:
• Unit mass of oil whose production is possibly declining and therefore end of cheap oil, with the consequent need for replacement.
• global discussion on climate change without significant progress years: a mass of evidence of the pressure that our economic model is placing on ecosystems and climate, is joined by a great uncertainty about the impact this may have about our welfare and, particularly, that of future generations.
• This creates an ethical debate about whether to act now, and the cost of such action. Especially if the capital to invest is now retired from other initiatives that are perceived as most pressing: poverty, disease, access drinking water ...
• political Crisis: difficulty of the traditional parties and ideologies to renew the discourse and engage the citizens to democratic participation and responsible (with the limitations imposed by the system, we are more naive than necessary ...) on the problems of society. With the exception hopeful Obama in the U.S., could include both a "crisis of the left" as a "crisis of the right", namely
• The left has long been unable to articulate a speech to the new times (with or without a crisis.) Once made by the Western democracies, many of the principles defended by the left, some of them embedded in welfare states of many countries, the left is torn between its old ghosts (past Marxist ideology naively stale anti-liberal, pro-environmentalist, etc. ) and the new populist whims (Morales, Chavez ... when Ahmadinejad among the particularly stupid). See for example this article (with their disappointing last paragraphs), or seeing flashes of brilliance by here for here and some of the speeches that are read here.
• Right, especially the Party Republican U.S. and in other countries see it as their guide and reflection, shows an alarming radical anti-state, anti-scientific and intolerant ( see here). His version is brilliantly portrayed Iberian here.
• In the case of Spain, has revealed that the "English miracle" was not much, and that without deep reforms to guide our production to growth , our living standards and those of our children go to fall well below that we were enjoying. Even with these reforms, it is inevitable a difficult period of adjustment and reorganization will not be easy manage to politicians and people in general.

I would get a positive message of all this, but I find it hard. Such a message can consist only in the hope that the institutions that contribute to our well emerge stronger from this period of crisis, having learned something for next time.

points that would be desirable (and I know what I seem pathetically naive to write):

• global financial reform, even partial or progressive, but essential for not returning to the same practices that precipitated the crisis.
• EU Refoundation on bases robust and flexible to include monetary as well as economic governance, greater agility in times of crisis, increased democratization of the European institutions and education to the city ...
• height view of politicians. Consider the voter as someone smart, rely on the advice of those who know, explain the why of things, the need for reforms and the risks involved if not done. Although this seems an unaffordable condition for a politician, I fear it will be the only way to avoid or at least reduce, protests and social unrest that may generate tremendous consequence of adjustment that lies ahead (perhaps inevitable in any case), and small-scale example of which we are seeing in the Greek crisis. Reassessing
• actions Climate Change, to be compatible with the improvement in living standards of the neediest countries. Turning crisis into an opportunity energy.
• need for a new impulse conservative movement and right of a modern, rational, scientific and tolerant ... such as this .
• urge to reestablish left so that, without sacrificing universal values \u200b\u200bof redistribution, justicia social, igualdad de oportunidades de origen, solidaridad ante el desfavorecido por los caprichos de la naturaleza, por la enfermedad o la exclusión social, etc., adopte una visión pragmática de la política, mucho más basada en el empirismo y la evaluación de políticas, dispuesta a defender los estados del bienestar basándose en políticas capaces de sostenerlos (no en “derechos adquiridos e inalienables”), asumiendo la defensa de la sostenibilidad en sentido amplio  y el rechazo indiscutible de los totalitarismos y populismos mal llamados “de izquierdas”. Vamos, una izquierda como ésta .

¿Alguien dare to complete the picture?

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Tolo Calafat's death on Annapurna

is the first time, I think, I'm going to write about climbing on the blog, which continues to be entertaining, it is a topic that fascinates me and I spend part of my leisure. The reason is the tragic death of mountaineer on Annapurna Tolo Calafat, in circumstances that do not differ too much from previous cases, but nevertheless, by the grace of the weaker measures Juanito Oiarzabal statements accusing the Korean team Oh Eun Sun's lack of solidarity, have led to a war of words in the elite world of climbing is not being very uplifting. I like to make any Comment on this controversy.

In this link is the news, and it and this controversy details later, for those more interested in the subject.

First we must say something every climber who has been in difficult situations well known: you can not judge lightly, from the couch and watching the news, decisions under adverse circumstances is to take a mountaineer. The mountains, especially in winter, and especially to high altitude, is a hostile terrain, it can play tricks. A difficult situation, such an accident, or simply witness, or lost in the fog as it approaches the night and the depletion arrives, or be on a craggy precipice we do not know how to get out, etc., is a stressful situation in which any person may have difficulty making right decisions. This is true for Pyrenees, imagine what we can provide in the Himalayas, over 7,000 m, with physical and mental faculties seriously impaired.

Any climber who goes to the Himalayas to climb an eight thousand knows or should know, that above 7,000 m ransom is nearly impossible, especially if the weather is not (not usually accompanies ...). One rather has to stagger down looking for the small refuge fields are high, as to think down on his back to a teammate. In the best case, you can expect. Or, after rest and hydrate for a few hours, if freezing and mental fitness and generally do not prevent, try to go to help those who have fallen behind. But for this we must be very sure to not end up regretting two deaths instead of one. And in any case, the decisions that affect their lives are yourself and nobody else.

So fill me with amazement the high-sounding declarations of Juanito Oiarzabal, short of accusing the sherpas of the issuance of Miss Oh you did not want help even offering € 6,000 to each one, "and accusing his own Miss Oh not get tough with them. How can you push yourself to some Sherpas to do what you yourself do not you think you are capable of? I understand that you ask, I understand your frustration at the negative ... but not require them to understand that life is play, put a price on that life and then accuse them of not accepting or by those ... gesture, the latter, who were honored: I would have left a bad feeling if it had accepted to go for Tolo, for money.
Some say that the statements were hot Juanito, motivated by the tension of the moment, but it is not: Juanito was subsequently confirmed in several interviews. One type of experience can not be that big mouth, you should know the media coverage they would have their words, they would cause controversy and doubts which were to grow, once again, ethics, and so on achievements, Miss O and her team.

There is nothing in the attitude of the Sherpas of Miss Oh I seem reprehensible. I feel so much more, if confirmed, the fact that the Korean issue by removing the strings go in the key steps of the ascent, during its descent, when they know that there are other expeditions up having to go down the same place. It is customary in the Himalayas do not remove the strings that you have placed or have placed others, as they often serve for the passage of several expeditions. Forcing the English team to lose time and deepen their hair down to exhaustion a corridor equipped believed could be a before and after the life of Tolo. But that will never know, because many other circumstances came together in the drama: a peak too late, a possible bad measurement of its own forces, a mental block later, etc.

is no wonder that after all this, other well-known mountaineers and Himalayas have disfigured Juanito attitude. From here it has unleashed a small battle in which are revealed and old grudges are put into question the merits of one or the other.

All this is quite unfortunate, but we must not forget that among elite climbers usually ego almost as big as mountains to climb. The controversy about what might be wrong and "why would I have done if he had been there" are common, the heated debates ... they do not fall within the "scene" but that transcend media things start to degenerate.

I believe, however, that fans of the mountain we downplay this. We say (we can all say, that it is clear) with respect to those engaged in activities few and beautiful as you put it all in play, until their lives, knowing full well what they are doing. We think taking into account the conditions in eight thousand, so dramatically effects that can not be judge decisions that are there with the yardstick of us here. Carlos Pauner and Juanito Oiarzabal probably did a lot, staying in Camp 4 in their conditions, to try to help and organize the rescue. Let's stay in addition to other acts of true greatness in the mountains, like the Romanian Horia Colibasanu, who tried to climb by Tolo despite his poor physical condition, as it had done last year with Iñaki Ochoa. And especially to those of Sonam Sherpa and Dawa. The latter, after having topped with Carlos, Juanito and Tolo, and have fallen to Camp 4 as crushed as they still had the inner strength to rise again to seek (unsuccessfully) to Tolo with a sleeping bag and an oxygen bottle in the middle the blizzard ... It is literally risking their lives, and no one remembers after these people, these true supermen who are the people of the Himalayas. To help his memory, I copy here (Site http://www.barrabes.com/ ) the recent dedication Carlos Pauner own, that is priceless:

DAWA, the unsung hero by Carlos Pauner

"We're in Kathmandu, about to leave this country of mountains. After the terrible last days, we managed to recover and rest before starting back home. Gone all the sad events in the past and the bodies slowly recovering from the terrible beating he is climbing a mountain like Annapurna. Thanks to our insurance FIATC, the incipient frostbite and blindness have not gone over and help in our rapid evacuation has become paramount. Our confidence in you grows every day. Thank you friends.
In this moment of reflection and gratitude, I could not pass overlook key person in this whole adventure. Dawa Sherpa, Sonam and his partner. Both two have worked for us in this difficult issue, helping in the hard work on the mountain. However, his work has gone far beyond the ordinary into the extraordinary experience. When Tolo was fixed at 7,600 m, we help Sherpas near the Korean team and they said they were very tired from the ascent to the summit and could not do anything. Was their right and it seems perfectly reasonable. Little more to say. Sonam Tolo had kept all night and tried to bring it down to life, but walked no more Tolo. He decided, logically, save life and fell in the morning to camp 4. Juanito, Horia and I, coming from the summit, we had no chance to reach the top, without sufficient rest. I spoke with Dawa Sherpa this strong nearly 50 years. It was our last round up there and really did not hesitate. Carrying oxygen, food, medicines and a sack, went up to meet Tolo, with faith and determination. I suggested it and he agreed, that was it. He left the safety of camp 4 and went into the death zone, not at work, but to find a friend, Tolo and return to life.

When he returned after more than 11 hours of ascent, without the white mantle of snow would have betrayed no sign of life, Dawa had tears in his eyes. Have not found it, I could not, said ... My tears were for the two since they had lost a great friend and had seen almost disappear to another. Dawa made an extraordinary sacrifice, not money, not glory, not for fame. He did so only because they realized it was the only one who could do and knew that the life of his partner, not its leader, was at stake. When men are so close to the borderline between life and death, appears the best and the worst. The links between us are narrowed and labor ties are blurred, giving way to human feelings and visceral. I've never so glad to be able to embrace a Sherpa noble and powerful, to say I'm proud to be your friend and you can count on me, like he gave us his worth. Thanks Dawa, thanks for your effort, thanks for your help and I hope we can do the same for you. If anyone deserves an award, aid, of course, is the unsung hero of 50 years, whose only way of life is to climb mountains, risking their lives for a salary and I think I should rest and quiet in his small town. Hopefully we can do something for him. "


a mountaineer has died, another one, on a mountain whose ratio of deaths to the number of ascents is 38%. Not be the last. Let him rest in peace.